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Will UK unemployment reach 5.5% or higher in any 2026 ONS Labour Market release?

Market resolves to YES if the UK unemployment rate (aged 16+) reported in any Office for National Statistics Labour Market Overview bulletin published in 2026 is 5.5% or higher. In May 2026 the rate rose to 5.0% for the three months to March 2026, with vacancies at a five-year low. A reading of exactly 5.4% resolves NO. Resolution uses the headline unemployment rate in the ONS release (7am publication). Source: ONS Labour Market Overview bulletins (ons.gov.uk/releases).