Three MPC meetings remain after September: 5 November and 17 December.
Market resolves to YES if the official Bank of England Bank Rate in force at the close of 31 December 2026 is exactly 3.75%. Independent economist surveys have clustered around Bank Rate finishing 2026 unchanged at 3.75%, while money markets have priced a modest chance of a later hike if energy inflation persists. Any other rate (including 3.50% or 4.00%) resolves NO. Source: Bank of England Bank Rate page (bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate).