ONS monthly GDP for July is published on 11 September.
Market resolves to YES if the Office for National Statistics monthly GDP estimate for July 2026, published on 11 September 2026, shows a strictly negative month-on-month growth rate. A reading of 0.0% (flat) or any positive rate resolves NO. Resolution uses the headline month-on-month GDP growth rate in the ONS monthly estimate published at 7am. Source: ONS GDP monthly estimate (ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp).